2 hours ago
1
Nov 22, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) runs against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during the third quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
2025 did not go at all as the Kansas City Chiefs hoped. And the large number of injuries they suffered (over 20 players hit injured reserve), including all-galaxy QB Patrick Mahomes, only told part of the story. The team was also plagued by severe sloppiness, especially on offense. Players lined up incorrectly, ran the wrong routes, and gave up on a play before it was actually over far too often, which was out of character for an Andy Reid-coached football team. The Chiefs came into the offseason with a focus on retooling.
The Chiefs cut, traded, or let leave in free agency nine of their offensive and defensive starters from 2025. In addition, the team reconstructed half of its offensive coaching staff. Out went offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who prepped his resume for a second stint as a head coach by telling reporters he didn’t think it was a good idea to “burden” players with “details” (Nagy is now John Harbaugh’s OC with the Giants), and back is former Eagle RB Eric Bieniemy, a hard-nosed disciplinarian of whom Bears coach Ben Johnson says, “the standard is the standard with Eric.” Out went running back coach and former Eagle WR Todd Pinkston and in came former Eagle DeMarco Murray, who is known for pushing his players to be prepared at Oklahoma. Out went receiver coach Connor Embree, who failed to develop any consistency among his rookie receivers, replaced by Chad O’Shea, who earned three Super Bowl rings with the Patriots during his 20 years coaching NFL wide receivers to date.
With as many gaps as the Chiefs have in their roster, let’s look at where they might focus in the first round:
QB: Uh, no.
RB: This was an area of significant need going into the offseason. The Chiefs have brought in Kenneth Walker III and Emari Demercado via free agency to go along with 2025 7th round pick Brashard Smith. They could still use one more back who can sub for Walker for early down and short yardage situations, especially in the event Walker gets hurt.
WR: With Hollywood Brown joining the Eagles, the Chiefs lost their leading wideout from a room where no one (including Hollywood) could come within 23 catches and 264 yards of a 36-year-old tight end. Yes, you could say this is a need. In particular, the Chiefs need a receiver who can defeat man coverage and who can find success lining up out wide, as most of their existing corps are better against zone coverage and are most successful coming out of the slot.
TE: Travis Kelce put off starting his retirement era one more year to come back for another season with his good friend Patrick. The rest of the tight end room are largely role players. The Chiefs could stand to add another TE, particularly one who can learn from and hopefully replace Kelce in a year or two.
OL: Any Andy Reid team will always want to add to the offensive line depth, but that’s not for the first round. Among the starters, they have a solid pair of guards and a two-time All Pro center. They appear to have solved the left tackle problem with 2025 first rounder Josh Simmons, but they could really use someone who can at least push last year’s swing tackle, Jaylon Moore, at right tackle.
Edge: The defensive line was a particular disaster for the Chiefs in 2025, as they’ve been unable to find anyone who can drive defenses off of double-teaming Chris Jones almost every dropback. George Karlaftis is a good pass rusher, but with an average 2.97 second time to pressure, he’s not elite. The options on the other end of the line are unexciting and/or unproven. The Chiefs need to find an edge who can get to the QB quickly and whose physical profile fits Steve Spagnuolo’s preferred attributes so that he can slide them around the line as he loves to do: height at or above 6’3”, weight at least 260 lbs, and arms at least 33” in length.
DT: The Chiefs have Chris Jones dominating snaps at the 3 technique and just brought in Khyiris Tonga to start at nose. They could use backups and developmental starters at both spots, but that’s probably not a first round priority.
LB: The Chiefs lost SAM linebacker Leo Chenal (who was 10 pounds shy of qualifying as a core Edge candidate for Spags) and have not replaced him via free agency. They are currently down to Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, and some role player/special teamers. Given the defense is in the nickel much of the time, it’s not a priority, but if the right athlete is there, they’ll definitely grab him, especially if they think he could replace Tranquill in a year or two.
DB: Spagnuolo and secondary wizard Dave Merritt have an extended string of taking mid to late round draft picks and developing them into corners who excel to the point they are able to get lucrative second contracts with other teams in free agency, from Charvarius Ward to Jaylen Watson. While they typically look for toolsy players to develop in later rounds, they did draft Trent McDuffie in the first and eventually turned him into three picks including number 29 in this first round rather than pay new record money for a corner for the first time this regime. If they feel there’s a special talent among the corners projected for the first round they will take him, but I don’t think they’ll otherwise prioritize the position over other needs for these high value picks. Safety, however, is another story. While they’ve not drafted a starting safety in the first round for the Spagnuolo defense, it’s been because until now they prioritized getting – and paying market price contracts with – veterans through free agency or trade as their top safety instead. They’ve not done that this year, as Alohi Gilman is not really in the same tier as Tyrann Mathieu or Justin Reid.
So given all this, who makes sense for the Chiefs at pick 9? Thankfully for them, the board has fallen such that there are multiple good options.
Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq has been getting more than a little buzz in Chiefs circles, which is only natural given Travis Kelce may be in the final year of his playing career. NFL.com compares him to Trey McBride, who led all TEs in receiving yards last season, but I don’t see that as Sadiq is way more athletic, outjumping McBride by a foot and a half at the broad jump and almost an entire foot in the vertical. He also posted a 40 time that would have made him 11th among wide receivers but was easily the top mark for TEs. That athleticism is counterbalanced by some concerns in his game. His drop rate was in the bottom quartile of his class and his contested catch rate is not what you’d hope to see given his athleticism. His blocking needs work as well as his discipline when facing zone coverage. He’s been highly inconsistent throughout his college career, and you’d like to see a player drafted that high be dominant consistently.
LSU’s Mansoor Delane could be that rare first round corner for the Chiefs, especially given the fact they probably need to take more than one in this draft. Primarily used on the outside, Mansoor is rated highly for his man coverage skills but also isn’t a slouch when playing zone coverage. His completion percentage allowed of 40% on passes targeting his receiver is among the best in this class. He’s not the tallest corner in the draft, but he does have the kind of physicality that Spagnuolo corners are expected to play with. However, there are some questions about what his ceiling is at the NFL level. I’m also unsure if the Chiefs, who haven’t drafted this early in the first round in many years, will want to use the nine pick on a player who, thanks to their following NFL aging curves in estimating future performance of NFL players, they’ll likely let walk in free agency after his rookie contract is up or, as with McDuffie, trade before he hits his fifth year.
Of the available WRs, Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson makes the most sense for today’s Chiefs in a perfect world. Drawing a draft comp of Terry McLaurin, Tyson has a complete route tree that he uses very effectively against man coverage. He has a lot of success out wide, but also played well out of the slot in past seasons, giving him that role diversity Andy Reid likes. His overall drop rate is stellar, though he’s only mid tier when it comes to contested catches. The real problem with taking Tyson is his incredibly spotty record staying healthy after suffering significant knee, collarbone, and hamstring injuries over his college career. The Chiefs had plenty of experience with having a top receiver unavailable during the years Sammy Watkins was with the team. I doubt they want to spend a ninth round pick to revisit them.
Miami Edge Rueben Bain Jr. has been a topic of considerable conversation in draft circles because of his short arm measurements at the combine. He’s also a little short to fit the Spags Edge model. However, NFL.com compares him to a young Brandon Graham. And Andy Reid had this to say about Graham last year to WIP about drafting Graham and how great the other BLG has been at the game: “He had this thing his arms were too short or he wasn’t tall enough or long enough, whatever the terms are that we all put on players and destroy great ones with.” Despite Bain’s supposed shortcomings, he’s on the table at 9. In fact, he was my runner up for the pick. Bain is extremely talented, but he really didn’t start putting it all together until this past year. In the meantime, this draft class is so deep along the defensive line that there are other potential starters who should be available at or near the Chiefs’ next couple picks. Instead, I had to go with the rarer talent:
With the ninth pick in the draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select Caleb Downs, Safety, Ohio State University.
Generational talent.
At least, that’s what 99% of the articles written on him declare Downs to be. I’m not really sure how to measure how generational a talent is, but I can talk about why he’s an appealing fit for the Chiefs.
Of the prospects I considered, Downs is the youngest, at 21.3 years of age. But he’s also been the most consistent, playing at a high level all three years he’s been a starter. He has role diversity, having lined up as box safety, deep safety, and over the slot receiver throughout his college career. For the NFL, he projects best in the box, which conveniently is where Honey Badger and Justin Reid lined up the most frequently in their time with the Chiefs.
There were some reports of medical red flags coming out of the Combine, but Downs has since disputed this and countered with his own medical results. At the moment, I’m leaning toward this being some of the random rumors some teams allegedly like to put out anonymously to try to discourage other teams from drafting a player before they can and that some agents allegedly spread to try to help their own clients with draft board positioning.
Physically, he’s hard to assess from the arm chair given he didn’t participate in Combine drills and didn’t take part in pro day measurables either. As such, he doesn’t have a RAS score. NFL.com lists his athleticism score as a 76, 11th among safeties, but that’s based on his size and an estimated 40 time. From a performance perspective, PFF gives him top percentile coverage grades and top quartile run defense grades. His missed tackle rate (11.5%) is above average, though his 7.7% forced incompletion rate is slightly below average. While he doesn’t prevent completions frequently, he does prevent scoring, as he didn’t allow a single TD against him in 2025. His tackling allowed him to be among the top 30 DBs in college football when it came to making coverage stops and run stops. His play is consistent, racking up similar grades for his play against Georgia and Miami as he did against Ohio University and Minnesota. He does not shrink from the big games.
NFL.com compares Downs to Jalen Pitre, which is a bit underwhelming. However, they also quote an unnamed NFC scouting director saying that he plays quite a bit like Budda Baker did coming out of college. With multiple All Pro seasons under his belt, Baker makes a much more exciting comparison. Many of the profiles on Downs label him an “alpha dog”, with NFL.com also calling him an “agent of disruption”. With a secondary that has lost much of its leadership, having a hard nosed leader come in as a draft pick is not a bad option. And while safety is not usually looked at as a high value position, the Chiefs have historically shown they believe differently, having given safeties the second contract that they don’t typically give corners. Drafting Downs could be an investment in the next eight to nine years of his career, the kind of longevity of impact you hope to see in a number nine pick.
2026 BGN Mock Draft Order
1) Raiders (Mailata_in_a_Miata): Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
2) Jets (Dr.MidnightGreen): Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State
3) Cardinals (grantspectations): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
4) Titans (DrBubbles): Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
5) Giants (ablesser88): Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
6) Browns (kjb304): Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State
7) Commanders (Jerry Robinson 56): Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
8) Saints (VetStadiumSection358): David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
9) Chiefs (Hoosinole): Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
10) Bengals (chuckelberryfinn)
11) Dolphins (phillyfan)
12) Cowboys (ejdubya)
13) Rams (All_Hail_Howie)
14) Ravens (215T1LL1D1e)
15) Buccaneers (pascofljoe)
16) Jets (Euegene11)
17) Lions (BCHaas)
18) Vikings (The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop)
19) Panthers (LancGuy)
20) Cowboys (Cravin’ LeBlanc)
21) Steelers (iam4theBirdz)
22) Chargers (Aint1stULast)
23) Eagles (Philly21)
24) Browns (FierceDisc65)
25) Bears (jazztafari)
26) Bills (PhillyTexan)
27) 49ers (granthill7)
28) Texans (CrackTheEaglesNut)
29) Chiefs (z)
30) Dolphins (Booth12)
31) Patriots (Niels Rosenquist)
32) Seahawks (J. Wil)
2026 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft
Now it’s YOUR TURN to vote for who you think should be selected with this pick.
1) Raiders: QB Fernando Mendoza
2) Jets: EDGE Arvell Reese
3) Cardinals: OT Francis Mauigoa
4) Titans: RB Jeremiyah Love
5) Giants: LB Sonny Styles
6) Browns: WR Carnell Tate
7) Commanders: EDGE David Bailey
8) Saints: EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
9) Chiefs:
