10 hours ago
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Smaller tokens are having a blast as major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), and XRP (XRP), continue their recovery from their declines late on Friday.
Stand out coins are the Sam Altman-founded Worldcoin (WLD), which risen 122% in the past 24 hours. The other is the decentralized exchange MYX Finance's MYX token, which has surged 270% in a single day. The DeFi sub-sector, in general, is better bid as search for yield in advance of expected Fed interest-rate cuts.
In traditional markets, gold posted a record high for the third straight day, rising to $3,650 per ounce. In inflation-adjusted terms, the yellow metal has surpassed the 1980s peak, according to Barchart.com.
"Moves of this magnitude mean the market is sending a signal that confidence in the existing monetary framework is eroding," pseudonymous observer EndGame Macro said on X.
Derivatives Positioning
By Omkar Godbole
- The market remains calm despite Friday's payroll data reigniting concerns about the risk of stagflation. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV, has eased to 38% from 44% at the end of August. Ether’s volatility index, EVIV, slipped to 66%, backing off from its August peak of 77%.
- The one-day implied volatility indices for both the two largest cryptocurrencies remain little changed, signaling no signs of panic ahead of Tuesday’s announcement by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to revise payroll figures downward for earlier this year.
- Open interest (OI) in futures tied to the top 20 tokens has increased in the last 24 hours, indicating capital inflows. The biggest inflows are into WLD, ENA, SOL, DOGE and XRP. OI in BTC futures has increased by nearly 3%.
- Solana stands out on the CME, with futures OI hitting a record high of 6.82 million SOL and an annualized three-month premium of over 15%, which is almost double those of BTC and ETH.
- Traders are continuing to withdraw capital from CME’s bitcoin futures, while open interest in ether futures is extending its descent from recent highs. Positioning in CME options tied to bitcoin and ether remains elevated, indicating hedging demand.
- On Deribit, the bearish bias for BTC puts has softened but remains noticeable, even as the spot price has bounced close to $113,000. The same can be said for ether.
- Block flows at OTC desk Paradigm show long positions in September puts combined with writing of upside calls, reflecting traders' continued caution and reluctance to fully commit to an upside breakout.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Sam Altman-founded Worldcoin (WLD) continued its ascent on Tuesday, taking another leg up to notch a 51% gain over 24 hours and 122% over the past week.
- The most recent rise followed Eightco Holdings' (OCTO) Monday announcement of a $250 million private placement, paving the way for a worldcoin treasury strategy.
- It's worth noting that treasury strategy announcements for other tokens prompted muted upside, for example a $1.65 billion raise to form a solana (SOL) treasury on Monday led to a gain of just 1.7% over 24 hours, suggesting additional catalysts behind the WLD move.
- WLD trading volume surged to $3.7 billion in 24 hours, a 250% rise on the previous day and a 2,000% rise from Friday's total.
- From a technical perspective, the WLD price has broken out of an eight-month range that had it suppressed with a median at around $1.00. It is expected to drop back to test $1.62 before potentially revisiting the $2.00 mark.
- The rally comes amid a backdrop of wider altcoin strength; the CoinMarketCap altcoin season index is at 57/100 as it approaches its highest point this year, indicating that further upside may be on the cards if crypto majors BTC and ETH can continue to drive away from critical levels of support.
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