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Entering the final week of the NBA regular season, the playoff picture is largely set.
In the Western Conference, five teams have already clinched postseason berths, with the Timberwolves on the verge of securing the final automatic spot. The Suns, Trail Blazers, Clippers and Warriors are positioned for the play-in tournament.
In the Eastern Conference, the top 10 teams are guaranteed, at least, a play-in spot. The Hawks, 76ers, Raptors, Hornets, Magic and Heat remain mathematically alive for a top-six seed and an automatic playoff berth — a race that will be worth monitoring over the final week.
Though seeding matters, more important is how these teams project once the postseason begins.
Stars ultimately determine a team’s ceiling, but playoff outcomes are often decided on the margins. Whether it’s knocking down shots, creating secondary offense or making an impact on the defensive end of the floor, the contributions of role players can change the trajectory of a team’s season. Iconic moments like Ray Allen’s 3-pointer in Game 6 of the 2013 NBA Finals are sometimes the difference between a championship or a premature playoff exit.
Using NBA StatsHub, we can identify the role players whose impact may be undervalued heading into the postseason.
Gary Payton II, Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry will reportedly return to action Sunday against the Rockets, which is the most important news for Golden State as they prepare for the play-in tournament. However, even if Curry returns – it’s unlikely that he will immediately perform like an MVP candidate, considering the severity of his knee injury and the fact that he hasn’t played since Jan. 30.
Contributions from elsewhere on the roster will be necessary if Golden State hopes to pull off an upset in the play-in tournament. Gary Payton II could be one key ingredient.
During the past month, Payton is averaging 13.7 points and 5.8 rebounds in 23.1 minutes for the Warriors. He’s been extremely efficient, shooting 66.7% from the floor. He has a +10.9% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation during that span, indicating that he’s been making a number of tough shots, too.
Factor in that Payton has been an asset on the defensive end of the floor and it’s not difficult to see his value.
Rui Hachimura, Los Angeles Lakers
Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves are the obvious big pieces for the Lakers, but players like Rui Hachimura could be the difference between an early exit or a deeper playoff run in Los Angeles.
In the last 30 days, Hachimura has been one of the team’s most efficient scorers, with a 10.9% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation. His ability to finish around the rim and knock down perimeter shots helps with spacing around the team’s primary playmakers.
The Lakers have also been 1.4 points better per 100 possessions defensively with Hachimura on the floor since the All-Star break.
Justin Edwards, Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are 23-13 SU with Joel Embiid on the floor this year, compared to a 19-21 SU record without him. The team has intentionally monitored Embiid’s workload during the regular season in an effort to have him healthy at the most important time of the year.
One benefit of such an approach is that Philadelphia has been able to see who else is able to be a solid contributor for them in big moments. Justin Edwards’ development could end up being a difference maker this spring for the 76ers.
Since the beginning of April, he’s averaging 12.0 points per game on 54.3% shooting. His 10.3% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation is among the best in the NBA for players averaging fewer than 30 minutes per game. Edwards has also been one of the team’s better defenders since the All-Star break.
Duncan Robinson, Detroit Pistons
Duncan Robinson doesn’t offer the defensive value that other names on this list provide to their teams, but he is an elite asset on the offensive end of the floor. Since the All-Star break, Detroit’s offensive rating is 11.1 points better with him on the court.
In the last month, Robinson is averaging 11.5 points on 51.5% shooting – even more impressive when considering that more than half of his shot attempts come from beyond-the-arc. Robinson has a 10.1% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation during that span.
The Takeaway
Stars get all the credit for postseason success, and their failures are often held against them. However, the difference between advancing and going home often relies on much more than simply how well the best player on the team performs.
Players like Gary Payton II, Rui Hachimura, Justin Edwards and Duncan Robinson don’t win end-of-season accolades, nor are they the focal point of morning talk shows. Nevertheless, their teams appreciate their contributions and their ability to convert difficult shots, provide efficient secondary offense, and contribute in high-leverage moments makes them critical pieces in a playoff setting.
Tools like NBA StatsHub can help us identify the role players who have the ability to outperform expectation when it matters most.
