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We recently saw that the Cowboys enter the 2026 NFL Draft with the most draft capital they’ve had since the 2016 NFL draft that delivered Ezekiel Elliott (4th overall pick), Jaylon Smith (34th), Maliek Collins (67th), Dak Prescott (135th), and Anthony Brown (189th) among others.
That draft delivered five starters and also sets up high expectations for this year’s draft.
To get a better feel for what type of player could be waiting for the Cowboys in each round, we’ll take a look at the players selected in the past five years with the picks the Cowboys hold this year.
One metric we’ll use today is Approximate Value (AV), which we’ve covered extensively in previous posts. AV points are fluid from one year to the next, but a rough scale would look something like this:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Approximate Value | Description | No. of players 2025 |
| >19 | MVP- or Player Of The Year level performance | 3 (0.1%) |
| 12-19 | All-Pro/Pro Bowl level performance | 57 (2.6%) |
| 6-12 | Starter quality | 403 (18.4%) |
| 3-6 | Backup player or limited playing time | 467 (21.3%) |
| 1-3 | Role player | 735 (33.6%) |
| <1 | Scrub | 523 (23.9%) |
When you ask around what constitutes a successful draft, the answer you’re most likely to get is that if you get two starters out of a draft class, you’ve done a good job. Some set three starters per draft as the benchmark for a successful draft, but those three guys don’t have to be immediate starters, eventual starters count as well.
From a purely mathematical point of view, that is actually quite a simple notion. All else being equal, adding the equivalent of two starters (or 9.1% of all snaps) to the roster is a good target for the first year of a rookie class. In the following years, you’d probably want to come out with the equivalent of three starters (13.6% of all snaps). Consistently over- or underachieving those targets has wide-ranging implications for your franchise as it dramatically impacts your roster renewal cycle.
When you only hit on two starters per rookie class, you’ll be on a roughly eleven-year cycle of roster renewal, which is much longer than the average span of an NFL starter’s career, which means free agency becomes an absolute necessity as you’ll need to plug holes all over the roster (often at high cost to your salary cap).
When you hit on three starters per rookie class, that cycle comes down to a roughly seven-year roster renewal frequency, and you would be able to fill most of your roster holes internally.
If you get four starters per year, your cycle drops to 5.5 years, and you’re generating a surplus of starters.
The Cowboys of late (2023-2025) have been averaging just two starters, which is why you’re seeing more and more holes on the roster, and which is why it’s so important that they come away with more than just two starters from this year’s draft class. Looking at how the last five draft classes of players selected with the 2026 Cowboys draft picks turned out could give us a better understanding of how many starters the Cowboys can reasonably expect.
First round
With two first-round picks in 2026, expectations are huge for the Cowboys on day one of the draft. But are they justified? Here’s what the last five drafts delivered at picks #12 and #20.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Year | Rnd | Pick | Tm | Player | Pos | Pro Bowls | Starter Seasons | AV | AV/Year | Games | Games started |
| 1st Round, No. 12 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 1 | 12 | DAL | Tyler Booker | OL | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 14 | 14 |
| 2024 | 1 | 12 | DEN | Bo Nix | QB | 0 | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 34 | 34 |
| 2023 | 1 | 12 | DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 3 | 1 | 42 | 14.0 | 49 | 24 |
| 2022 | 1 | 12 | DET | Jameson Williams | WR | 0 | 3 | 27 | 6.8 | 50 | 36 |
| 2021 | 1 | 12 | DAL | Micah Parsons | LB | 5 | 5 | 73 | 14.6 | 77 | 76 |
| 1st Round, No. 20 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 1 | 20 | DEN | Jahdae Barron | CB | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3.0 | 17 | 5 |
| 2024 | 1 | 20 | PIT | Troy Fautanu | OL | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4.5 | 18 | 18 |
| 2023 | 1 | 20 | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 2 | 2 | 31 | 10.3 | 51 | 36 |
| 2022 | 1 | 20 | PIT | Kenny Pickett | QB | 0 | 2 | 15 | 3.8 | 36 | 27 |
| 2021 | 1 | 20 | NYG | Kadarius Toney | WR | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.4 | 47 | 10 |
The color code here is already quite indicative of what to expect. The Cowboys already have experience with the 12th overall pick (Tyler Booker and Micah Parsons) and the short history here suggests you’re definitely getting a starter, and there’s a high likelihood that starter is a Pro Bowl-caliber player. At #20, the situation is quite different, you’ll need some luck to get a starter-quality player, but three of the five picks did have at least one starter season, so barring a complete bust, you’ll likely get a starter with upside potential.
I haven’t looked at the numbers, but my guess would be that you’ll get that type of player anywhere between picks 20-40 before seeing a more significant drop-off in quality.
That area is also where the Cowboys have struggled in the last few years. The jury is still out on Tyler Guyton (#29) but time is running out, Mazi Smith (#26) was a bust, Tyler Smith (#24) was a home run, Taco Charlton (#28) was anther bust, Jaylon Smith (#34) was a passable starter for a while. And that’s pretty much the range of what you can expect from that 20th pick.
Third and fourth round
Nobody is going into the third and fourth round expecting to draft a future Pro Bowler. By the time you get to the 92nd and 112th picks, most teams have passed on a prospect at least three or four times. If you hit on a Pro Bowler, you simply got lucky.
But you should look to get starters out of these two rounds, even if they are just backup or replacement quality – at least it’s one less spot you have to plug with a more expensive free agent.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Year | Rnd | Pick | Tm | Player | Pos | Pro Bowls | Starter Seasons | AV | AV/Year | Games | Games started |
| 3rd Round, No. 92 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 3 | 92 | SEA | Jalen Milroe | QB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2024 | 3 | 92 | TAM | Jalen McMillan | WR | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3.5 | 17 | 14 |
| 2023 | 3 | 92 | KAN | Wanya Morris | OL | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2.7 | 43 | 16 |
| 2022 | 3 | 92 | GNB | Sean Rhyan | OL | 0 | 2 | 16 | 4.0 | 47 | 28 |
| 2021 | 3 | 92 | TEN | Monty Rice | LB | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.4 | 39 | 11 |
| 4th Round, No. 112 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 4 | 112 | NOR | Danny Stutsman | LB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 17 | 0 |
| 2024 | 4 | 112 | LVR | Decamerion Richardson | CB | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2.0 | 27 | 7 |
| 2023 | 4 | 112 | NWE | Chad Ryland | K | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.7 | 47 | 0 |
| 2022 | 4 | 112 | NYG | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2.3 | 62 | 42 |
| 2021 | 4 | 112 | DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 4 | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 83 | 75 |
The color coding here, showing a bunch of backups and role players, may actually be a bit misleading. Out of the 10 players drafted in these two slots, five delivered at least one starter season, and that’s already something. And if you’re lucky, you may hit on more than that. The outlier here is Amon-Ra St. Brown, just like Dak Prescott was a fourth-round outlier in 2016.
But even fourth-round guys like Jake Ferguson (2022), Tyler Biadasz (2020), Tony Pollard (2020), Dorance Armstrong (2018), or Dalton Schultz (2018) show that you can get solid contributors in that area.
Fifth and seventh round
Two comp picks in the fifth give the Cowboys some additional ammunition on day three of the draft, but are they going to hit any targets with those extra shots?
Everybody is a draft expert these days, and with the ubiquity of draft data, draft tools, and draft coverage, we have more information than ever before on draft-eligible players. Over-saturated with that information, we collectively continue to find diamonds in the rough, high-upside players, under-the-radar players, traits players, and underrated players among day three and even UDFA prospects in our draft preparation.
But the NFL is tough, and players that look good on paper, run fast or jump high without pads, or even look good on film against often questionable opposing talent, can have a hard time surviving in the NFL, much less prospering.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Year | Rnd | Pick | Tm | Player | Pos | Pro Bowls | Starter Seasons | AV | AV/Year | Games | Games started |
| 5th Round, No. 152 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 5 | 152 | DAL | Shemar James | LB | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 | 14 | 6 |
| 2024 | 5 | 152 | PHI | Ainias Smith | WR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 7 | 1 |
| 2023 | 5 | 152 | DET | Colby Sorsdal | OL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.7 | 17 | 3 |
| 2022 | 5 | 152 | DEN | Delarrin Turner-Yell | S | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 31 | 2 |
| 2021 | 5 | 152 | DEN | Caden Sterns | DB | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.6 | 21 | 5 |
| 5th Round, No. 177 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 6 | 177 | BUF | Dorian Strong | CB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 4 | 1 |
| 2024 | 6 | 177 | MIN | Walter Rouse | OL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 8 | 0 |
| 2023 | 5 | 177 | LAR | Puka Nacua | WR | 2 | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 44 | 43 |
| 2022 | 5 | 177 | DET | James Mitchell | TE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 35 | 1 |
| 2021 | 5 | 177 | NWE | Cameron McGrone | LB | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.4 | 27 | 0 |
| 5th Round, No. 180 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 6 | 180 | LVR | JJ Pegues | DT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2024 | 6 | 180 | NWE | Marcellas Dial | DB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 17 | 1 |
| 2023 | 6 | 180 | ARI | Kei’Trel Clark | DB | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.3 | 43 | 9 |
| 2022 | 6 | 180 | BUF | Matt Araiza | P | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.3 | 34 | 0 |
| 2021 | 5 | 180 | SFO | Talanoa Hufanga | S | 1 | 3 | 30 | 6.0 | 66 | 54 |
| 7th Round, No. 218 overall | |||||||||||
| 2025 | 7 | 218 | ATL | Jack Nelson | OT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 10 | 0 |
| 2024 | 6 | 218 | BAL | Devin Leary | QB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | 7 | 218 | CHI | Travis Bell | DL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2022 | 6 | 218 | TAM | Ko Kieft | TE | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | 53 | 19 |
| 2021 | 6 | 218 | IND | Sam Ehlinger | QB | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.4 | 8 | 3 |
That’s a wall of red and orange, which is probably what the Cowboys can realistically expect from those picks. Two bona fide starters out of 20 picks equals a 10% chance of hitting on a draft pick this late in the draft. However, notice that the number of games played far outweighs the number of starts in many cases, indicating that some of these players have found roles on the team as special teams players or in specific packages.
Recognizing that the later rounds are just lucky shots in the dark, there are two things you can do.
You can try to accumulate even more picks on the premise that the more shots you take in the dark, the less likely it is that they’ll all miss the target.
Or you can try to improve your odds of hitting on a target by trading up your two BB guns for a scoped rifle on the assumption that it will allow you to reach higher-quality targets.
Everybody will draw their own conclusions from the comparison of the five previous draft classes highlighted above. My expectation would be for three eventual starters, with one of the first two picks being a future Pro Bowler if they are lucky – and nothing beyond the fourth round. And I don’t expect that chasing a player will serve them well. In any case, the 2026 draft capital suggests this year’s draft class should be better than the last few draft classes, so there’s that.
